Mac10, my favorite bear, Dec. 3, quotes a Reuters story: "Hedge funds are using near-record levels of leverage to trade equities and betting on debt-backed strategies in efforts to juice returns, making the most of markets buoyed by a boom in artificial intelligence."
Kobeissi Leter, Dec. 4, notes gain of 68% over last 36 months is the best 3 year performance since 2021. This is the second strongest run since 2000 and surpasses the recovery following 2008.
Kobeissi Letter, Oct 31, reproduces chart from Goldman Sachs showing a big surge into developed and emerging markets in the previous week, at over $140 billion, following $185 billion in the prior week. The totals are for flows into passive equity funds. Active funds had $50 billion in outflows in each of the last two weeks.
Neil Sethi, Oct 31, quotes a story in Marketwatch showing that nearly 9 percent of the S&P 500 saw a 52-week low on October 29, which according to Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG sends an "ominous signal" for the markets.
“Since 1990 there have only been four distinct periods” when the S&P 500 had more 52-week lows than highs and the percentage of 52-week lows exceeded 8% while the index was within 3% of a 52-week high, Krinsky said in a note emailed Thursday. Those dates were December 1999, November 2007, July 2015 and November 2021, he said, noting that “most market participants will recall those dates as essentially marking peaks before significant drawdowns.”
Mike Zaccardi, Oct. 31, notes that Bank of America clients had 66 percent of their assets allocated to stocks, matching the record high in 2021. GWIM refers to Global Wealth and Investment Management.
Charlie Bilello, Oct 30, notes that active managers reduced their equity exposure to 35 percent at the April lows, and now have their highest equity exposure since July 2024. This is bullish?
Robin Brooks, Oct 31, says these charts show that China desperately needed a trade deal with the US. Do they really?
Kobeissi Letter, Oct 31, shows average health insurance costs for families rising 6 percent in 2025 to nearly $27,000. Insane.
Moonlit Monkey, Nov 1, seems to think that something is amiss here.
Kobeissi Letter, Oct 31, has an interesting chart showing the varying fortunes of Wynn Resorts (up 42 percent in 2025) and Caesars (down 39 percent in 2025). This seems to be the K-Shaped Economy in action, with Wynn Resorts catering to the high rollers and Caesars to the average Joes. Kobeissi notes that travel to Las Vegas is down by approximately 2 million people in 2025.
Robert (infra), Nov. 1, says deaths of despair are now triple the rate during the Great Depression and have increased 2.7 timjes since 2000. Drug overdose deaths are over five times the rate in 2000 and alcohol deaths are 4.6 times higher than the Great Depression. Not good.
Dalton Caldwell, reproduces chart from Wall Street Journal showing the capital expenditures of the big tech firms and wonders what the second and third order effects of this will be.
Ross Hendricks, Nov 1, notes that the current level of 40x free cash flow is only 25% below the March 2000 high of 50x free cash flow and nearly double the average valuation of 22x during the current bull market.
Lukas Ekwueme, Nov. 1, says China's real leverage is achieving 5N (99.999%) purity in refining rare earths, a level essential for semiconductors and military-grade magnets.
Unicus, Oct 31, says 670,000 federal workers are furloughed and approximately 730,000 are working without pay.
Shubham Garg, Nov 1, notes fall in discoveries of conventional oil in last few years:
Neil Sethi, nov. 1, writes that the put-call skew in the Mag7 stocks has inverted for the first time since December 2024. The skew measures the implied volatility of calls traded over puts. Sethi says that such low skew readings have coincided with short-term consolidation or reversals.
Kobeissi Letter, Nov 1, notes lots of consumer-facing stocks are down 20 percent in 2025
Eyisha Zyer, Nov. 1, summarizes a Goldman Sachs report saying that AI has the potential to automate the jobs of 300 million people worldwide, with the impact especially bad for administrative and support, legal, and architecture and engineering. Social scientists will also be screwed.
Lukas Ikwueme, Nov 1, reproduces chart from Bloomberg showing China's domination of the supply of rare earths.
Shay Boloor, Nov. 1, shows the top growth performers of 2025. Btw, it's not a bubble.
Rob Anderson, Nov 1, says it's late innings for the secular bull market that began in 2009.
Charlie Bilello, Nov. 2, says there's no reward without risk. The S&P 500, he writes, has returned an average of 12 percent a year since 1980 despite an average intra-year drawdown of 14 percent.
Kobeissi Letter, Nov 1, says Buffett's cash pile is now larger than the market cap of all but 30 public companies in the world. Waiting for the correction, is Warren.
The following chart shows the XLP (Consumer Staples etf) and the QQQs from late 1998 to beginning of 2001. Note that the QQQs had their biggest surge just as XLP was collapsing in the first 9 weeks of 2000. Just as the internet bubble was reaching its culminating point, Consumer Staples were pointing toward recession. Look familiar?
Kobeissi Letter, Oct 17, says 1.6 million crypto traders were liquidated on October 10, amounting to $19 billion, nine times the previous record.
Kobeissi Letter, Oct 17. Febrile behavior is the best, no?
Kobeissi letter, Oct 17, shows that retail loves equities. Btw, that's bearish.
Kobeissi Letter, Oct 17, has chart showing surge in margin debt. He notes that investor leverage has nearly doubled over the last two years, similar to the rise following the 2020 pandemic.
Otavio Costas, Oct 17, shows that cash flow at the gold miners has gone up a lot more than their stock prices.
40 Years of the Copper/Gold Ratio:
Alex, Oct 16, weighs in with a few other correlations:
Kobeissi Letter, Oct 17, with chart from BofA Global Research, shows net inflows into gold and silver funds at a record.
StockMarket.News, Oct 17, with chart from @econovisuals:
Mohamed El-Erian, Oct. 9, reproduces chart from Bloomberg, with figures from the World Gold Council, on central bank holdings of gold. Except that the figures are not to be trusted. Sirius Report says China has 40,000 tons of gold in private and public hands.
Brian Coughlin, Sept 27, notes that "large caps have never looked less attractive."
SuperMacro, Sept. 10, says that if nominal GDP growth stalls further, margins will come under increasing pressure.
Charlie Bilello, Oct. 2, says the US bond market has been in a drawdown for 62 months, "by far the longest in history."
Stephen Kalil, Sept 29, shows this chart showing that "produced water" is outpacing oil and gas production, responding to OilPrice.com tweet that says: "For every barrel of U.S. shale oil, 3–5 barrels of toxic wastewater are produced—up to 45M barrels daily. Disposal wells have caused quakes, groundwater pollution, and now risk “flooding out” oil reserves. Even Chevron warns the system is unsustainable."
