Callum Thomas, June 16
Sunday, August 31, 2025
Dependence of US Economy on Foreign Net Savings
Albert Edwards, September 18, 2024, from @dailychartbook
Total Value of Stocks/GDP Ratio from 1960
Elliott Wave International, July 21
Robert Prechter, July 23
Tariffs on Major Trading Partners, July 31
Steve Hou, July 31, from Bloomberg, showing prevailing tariff rates on major trading partners.
Stagflation Alert
Richard Bernstein Advisors, August 5, Prices going up on Services and New Orders going down. Not seen in 18 years before GFC
Corporate Buybacks Reach Record
Kobeissi Letter, August 6
US companies announced $166 billion in stock buybacks last month, the most for any July on record. This surpassed the previous record of $88 billion in 2006. This is also TRIPLE the 2021-2023 average and more than DOUBLE the amount seen last year. Year-to-date, announced buybacks stand at $926 billion, $108 billion above the previous year-to-date record set in 2022. Financial and technology firms have been the main drivers of the surge.
AI Spenders and Earners
From Otavio Costa:
Costa says:
On one side are the entities compelled to spend on a scale rarely seen outside of wartime. On the other are the industries positioned to earn from that tidal wave of investment. Artificial intelligence has sparked a global technological arms race. Unlike past innovations such as railroads or the internet, where adoption unfolded gradually, AI is driving governments and corporations into an urgent competition to secure infrastructure and capacity first. Compounding this urgency is the parallel push toward onshoring — a reversal of globalization that demands rapid domestic buildouts of factories, datacenters, and supply chains. Together, these forces point toward what could become one of the most extreme construction booms in modern economic history. This is not a conventional investment cycle. It marks the onset of a new economic order, one driven by necessity rather than choice. In our view, the spenders will fund the transformation, and the earners will likely compound the returns.
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