David Bird, Feb. 22, says that all five major defensive sectors--utilities, staples, materials, energy, and healthcare--are now sitting a key long-term relative support levels, unseen since the early 2000s. His illustrative chart is the Health Care etf (XLV): Nasdaq ratio. One can make similar charts for EEM and EFA.
Walter Bloomberg, Feb. 22, has chart from Bloomberg showing growth of trade deficit
Jurfrien Timmer of Fidelity Investments, Feb 24, has an interesting chart comparing the performance of the Mag 7 stocks with the Equal Weight S&P 500. The blue-shaded area at the bottom shows the equal-weighted S&P 500 has outperformed the Mag 7 by 12 percent in the last 3 months.
Mac10 takes the long view in this chart comparing IT Investment and Labor's Share of the Economy since the 1980s.
Neil Sethi, Feb. 27, reproduces chart from Bank of America and its market strategist, Michael Hartnett, warning of a blowff top in the Korean Stock Exchange.
Tobias Carlisle, February 27, thinks the turn in this ratio foretells a bear market.
This instructive chart from Myrmikan Research (link below) shows nine currencies in a state of collapse. The charts measure the price of their currencies in relation to gold. As Daniel Oliver explains,
"Currencies do not usually fade; they tend to collapse. The country is overindebted, the citizens, the businesses, the government, all. Everyone takes on debt because they are crafty and anticipate a devaluation or because they must to meet living expenses. But the growing debt creates a growing demand for currency to pay interest. An uneasy equilibrium develops as the central bank tries to print enough to satisfy the interest payments but not so much as to crash the currency. There is a crisis, like 2008 or COVID or war; interest payments stutter; they stare into the deflationary abyss; they devalue suddenly, usually over a weekend."
Oliver describes a process of monetary unwinding that goes through three phases, ending in a choice between default or a massive devaluation of the currency. The logic is that the dollar will be sacrificed to save the bond market, which seems a reasonable assumption.
Here is the link to the Myrmikan report, dated February 9, 2026:
https://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2026_02_09.pdf
h/t Navroop Singh, February 9.
Kathleen Tyson, February 20, has chart showing the fall in Chinese holdings of US Treasuries over the last decade. The figures are notoriously difficult to interpret, as the figures don't really capture who is holding what.
Kobeissi Letter, February 10, has a chart showing the prodigious rise in short interest of TLT, the etf that tracks the long term US Treasury bond market. Short interest is up 10 times since March 2023, and is three times 2024 levels.
Kobeissi Letter, February 10, notes that salaries for college graduates, adjusted for inflation, are down around 8 percent on an annual basis, marking the 4th consecutive annual decline. Says salaries have fallen around 24% in real terms since 2021 (from $71,000 in 2021 to $54,500 today).
Kobeissi Letter, February 10, notes the index plunged around 40 points vetween 2021 and 2022 and remains low.
Markets and Mayhem, February 10, notes the top ten stocks make up 39.8% of the S&P 500, whereas the 11-th-50th largest stocks just make up 22.5 % of the index.
Value Seeker, February 10, says the tech index (QQQ) now trades more than 3 standard deviations above its long term trend, if one adjusts for money supply.
Chart from Louis Vincent Gave, interview with Dean Curnutt of The Alpha Exchange, February 4, 2026.
