AI's Giant Loop

 Michael Burry Stock Tracker, Oct. 6, draws attention to the giant loop that is AI  investment. There's been $573 billion of AI financing in the last year, all of it running through 8 companies: Meta, Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, OPENAI, Anthropic, Broadcom, and Nvidia. "They lend to each other, guarantee each other's debt and buy from each other, so one company's loan is backed by another company's promise to keep spending." Burry says it'll all fall down "if AI  revenue disappoints for one season." 

Historic, Systemic Divergences in the Stock Market

 The Great Martis, Oct. 6, notes the extreme divergence that had developed in the stock market, the Nasdaq entirely disjoined from the indices that track the broader economic engine. If "the pillars of transport and banking give way, the tech sector cannot hold the line indefinitely." 

Rates Rising Worldwide

 Robin Brooks, Oct. 7, shows bond yields in sixteen different markets: 

Bonds Post Worst 10-Year Return in History

 Hedgeye, Oct. 6, bears the grim tidings: 

Talk about a Two-Tiered Market!

 Mac10, our favorite bear, notes incredible divergence between a market near all time highs with the New York Stock Exchange reaching for a record in new lows. 

Long-Term, Copper is Cheap (and Scarce)

 So says Value Seeker, Oct. 10, who notes that the all time highs in nominal terms reached this year are still below former tops, after you adjust for money supply. He's shown similar charts for other commodities. 

Look Out Below

 John Arnold, Oct. 9, notes that mortgage rates have increased from 2.7 percent in January 2021 to 7.4 percent today, and yet median house prices are up 33 percent in that time. Something's gotta give. 

Oracle as Leading Indicator

 Holger Zschaepitz, Oct 9, thinks so, as the credit markets are getting nervous. Oracles 5 year Credit Default Swap trades near a record 261 basis points, implying a 20.4% chance of default. SpaceX is at 16.5%, and even Nvidia is greater than 7%. 

AI is Like 50 Percent of the Whole Market!

 Jim Bianco, Oct 11, says that 41 AI-related companies he tracks accounted for 48.68% of the S&P 500's combined market capitalization, the remaining companies 51.32%. What percentage of this, one wonders, is specifically related to the defense sector? I really don't know, but it's a lot. 

Prices Rip for Shipping Oil

 Saleh Almenawer, Oct. 12, writes of the huge explosion of costs in shipping oil.

Corporate Earnings and Bond Yields: Something Ain't Right

 The Kobeissi Letter, Oct. 12, notes that the spread or difference between the S&P 500's earnings yield and the 10 Year Treasury Note is down to minus 1.5. "In other words, investors are receiving a higher yield from Treasuries than from the S&P 500, despite the additional risk of owning stocks." It's also done it three years running, "the longest streak since 2002." 

Housing Market Hits Skids

 Barchart, Oct. 11, says that home sellers now outnumber buyers by largest margin ever. 

How Bear Market Rallies F**k the Shorts. Or Is It the Longs?

 Thierry from arvy, Oct. 13, notes the massive rallies that occurred during the 78% drawdown in the Nasdaq from 2000 to 2002: 

        – A 35% rally. Then new lows.         – A 12% rally. Then new lows.         – A 25% rally. Then new lows.         – A 41% rally. Then new lows.         – A 45% rally. Then the bottom, 30 months after the top.

Token Prices Dropping

 Kuppy, Oct. 14, says it's a race to the bottom against fixed costs for the guys owning token factories and that the new bankuptcy cycle will be epic. 

Forecasters Fighting About Oil Demand

 OilPrice.com, Oct. 14, says OPEC and the IEA can't both be right. 

The Commodities Conundrum

Against All Odds Research, Oct. 14, says we're getting close to 2008 levels. 

Doomberg says that commodities always get cheaper in relative terms--that's the long term secular trend. There's a host of people that say otherwise. I'm with the others. 

Aerial Bombardment Since World War II

 Mac10, Oct. 15, doesn't give a source for this chart, but the overall figures seem right, considering the tonnage dropped on Korea, Vietnam, Serbia, Iraq (three times), Afghanistan, Libya, Iran. 

When Governments Default

 Lukas Ekwueme, Oct. 17, says that 51 out of 52 countries with gross government debt above 130% have defaulted since 1800--through inflation or other forms of default--and says the US is on the way to topping 130% soon. 

Is Market Cheap or is Wall Street Delusional?

Mike Zaccardi, Oct. 17, says the multiple has contracted from 23.2X a year ago to 18.7 today . . . but what about those forward earnings? 

 

Iran/Persia's Territorial Losses, 19th and 20th Centuries

 Civixplorer, Oct. 18, has a nice map:

Oil Storage Being Real Tight

 24 Energy Research, Oct 20, is telling you that you should be concerned about this: