Kobeissi Letter, Oct 17, says 1.6 million crypto traders were liquidated on October 10, amounting to $19 billion, nine times the previous record.
Sunday, October 19, 2025
Leveraged ETFs Assets Under Management Going Vertical
Kobeissi Letter, Oct 17. Febrile behavior is the best, no?
Households All-In on Equities
Kobeissi letter, Oct 17, shows that retail loves equities. Btw, that's bearish.
Margin Debt Surging
Kobeissi Letter, Oct 17, has chart showing surge in margin debt. He notes that investor leverage has nearly doubled over the last two years, similar to the rise following the 2020 pandemic.
Gold Miners Printing Money
Otavio Costas, Oct 17, shows that cash flow at the gold miners has gone up a lot more than their stock prices.
Searching for Meaning in the Copper/Gold Ratio
40 Years of the Copper/Gold Ratio:
Alex, Oct 16, weighs in with a few other correlations:
The copper to gold ratio is one of those deceptively simple indicators that captures a huge amount of information about how the global economy is actually behaving. Copper lives in the real economy in construction, manufacturing, grids and tech infrastructure, while gold lives in the financial system, representing liquidity preference, fear, and a bid for safety. When copper outperforms gold, it usually means growth is accelerating, credit is flowing, and investors are comfortable taking risk. When it collapses like it has in these charts, it means growth expectations are fading, liquidity is tightening, and capital is seeking shelter instead of expansion.
The first chart shows the ratio hitting new multi year lows into October, which is a big statement. It means that industrial demand and cyclical confidence are near recessionary levels even though headline inflation has stabilized. The world’s growth metals are signaling that global manufacturing and capex cycles are contracting again, not because of commodity oversupply, but because credit conditions and trade dynamics have turned restrictive. China’s property and infrastructure slowdown, combined with U.S. tariffs, tighter dollar liquidity, and slower global trade, have crushed copper’s pricing power. Gold, meanwhile, has stayed firm because of safe haven demand, central bank buying, geopolitical risk, and investors hedging against policy uncertainty. The divergence shows the world is hedging risk rather than betting on recovery.
The second chart links that ratio to 30 year swap spreads, which are a proxy for balance sheet health in the banking system. When those swap spreads turn deeply negative, it usually means dealers and banks are hoarding collateral, unwilling to lend or take on long duration exposure. The fact that the copper to gold ratio and swap spreads are falling together tells you the weakness is about funding stress and reduced intermediation capacity. Fewer willing balance sheets mean less credit creation, less global trade financing, and ultimately less demand for industrial materials like copper.
The third chart connects the ratio with the USD/CNY exchange rate, which is another key piece of the puzzle. When the yuan weakens, it’s often a sign that Chinese domestic demand is under pressure and that the global industrial engine is slowing. Copper demand falls when China tightens credit or devalues to protect exports. The ratio tends to track that behavior tightly, weaker yuan, weaker copper to gold ratio, reinforcing the message that the slowdown is being driven from Asia outward. Add oil to the mix, and you get a picture of synchronized deflation in physical demand while the dollar system tightens liquidity.
So what all these charts are showing is that the global economy is moving deeper into a financialized slowdown. Credit conditions are tight, liquidity is uneven, and growth impulses are weak. Copper can’t rally because global manufacturing and Chinese demand are both soft, and gold is rising because investors and central banks are preparing for instability rather than expansion. The copper to gold ratio, swap spreads, and USD/CNY all confirm that we’re in a structural phase of slow growth, high volatility, and rising risk aversion. It’s a quiet signal that the world is shifting from a reflationary narrative to one of balance sheet defense.
Gold Inflows Surging
Kobeissi Letter, Oct 17, with chart from BofA Global Research, shows net inflows into gold and silver funds at a record.
Japan and China Share of US Treasury Holdings, 2000-2025
StockMarket.News, Oct 17, with chart from @econovisuals:
Rare Earths Getting Rarer
Lueh-Wai Wong, Oct 17, from Visual Capitalist, showing US dependency on rare earths produced in China. 
Central Bank Holdings of Gold, 2000 vs. 2024
Mohamed El-Erian, Oct. 9, reproduces chart from Bloomberg, with figures from the World Gold Council, on central bank holdings of gold. Except that the figures are not to be trusted. Sirius Report says China has 40,000 tons of gold in private and public hands.
Thursday, October 2, 2025
Forward P/E Ratios for Large Caps and Small Caps
Brian Coughlin, Sept 27, notes that "large caps have never looked less attractive."
Corporate Margins and Nominal GDP Growth
SuperMacro, Sept. 10, says that if nominal GDP growth stalls further, margins will come under increasing pressure.
Longest Drawdowns for US Bonds, 1976-2025
Charlie Bilello, Oct. 2, says the US bond market has been in a drawdown for 62 months, "by far the longest in history."
Crisis in Shale Country
Stephen Kalil, Sept 29, shows this chart showing that "produced water" is outpacing oil and gas production, responding to OilPrice.com tweet that says: "For every barrel of U.S. shale oil, 3–5 barrels of toxic wastewater are produced—up to 45M barrels daily. Disposal wells have caused quakes, groundwater pollution, and now risk “flooding out” oil reserves. Even Chevron warns the system is unsustainable."
Lukas Edkwueme, Aug 18, says the Permian isn't an oil basi, it's a water basin. "For every barrel of oil in the Permian, 4-12 barrels of water come up with it."
Open AI Wants 250 Gigawatts of Capacity by 2033
Rene Bruentrup, Sept 27, notes that 250 GW is half of what the entire US is using right now (488 GW). Insane.
Peak Oil is Back, Baby
Lukas Ekwueme, Sept 29, notes that annual conventional oil and gas discoveries are down 60% since 2010 and 90% since 1960. This was a favorite of the peak oil crowd back in the day.
He also reproduces a second chart showing an average increase of five years from exploration to development, going from 15 years in the 1990s to 20 years today.
His summation is as follows:
- The only supply growth in the past decade is peaking
- Declines rates are surging
- We are barely looking for oil
- When we look for oil we need longer to find it
- When we find oil, we find less
Everything is lined up for a prolonged price spike
Robots Take Over Trading
L:ukas Ekwueme, Sept 25, notes that active management of stock trading has collpased from 80% to 10%
Consumer Spending Steady, Business Spending Plummets
Spencer Hakimian, Sept 28, says this is really bad.
Debt to Equity Ratios of AI Stocks
Jason Burack, Sept 29, notes Oracle has loaded up with an insane amount of debt for its data center build out.
Oil Adjusted for Money Supply, 1970-2025
Value Seeker, Sept 30, notes that oil adjusted for money supply is hitting the lows of 1998 and 2016.
US No 1 in Debt Service Costs
Ritesh Jain, Sept 30, says that, like the Athenians during Delian League times, the United States will seek to transfer this burden to allies.
Aliens Continue to Prop Up US Stocks
Vinvent Deluard, Sept 16, says this is gonna stop one of these days.
Yields on 10 Year Treasuries Surpass Current Earnings Yield on Stocks
Barchart, Sept 30, citing Bloomberg
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