This instructive chart from Myrmikan Research (link below) shows nine currencies in a state of collapse. The charts measure the price of their currencies in relation to gold. As Daniel Oliver explains,
"Currencies do not usually fade; they tend to collapse. The country is overindebted, the citizens, the businesses, the government, all. Everyone takes on debt because they are crafty and anticipate a devaluation or because they must to meet living expenses. But the growing debt creates a growing demand for currency to pay interest. An uneasy equilibrium develops as the central bank tries to print enough to satisfy the interest payments but not so much as to crash the currency. There is a crisis, like 2008 or COVID or war; interest payments stutter; they stare into the deflationary abyss; they devalue suddenly, usually over a weekend."
Oliver describes a process of monetary unwinding that goes through three phases, ending in a choice between default or a massive devaluation of the currency. The logic is that the dollar will be sacrificed to save the bond market, which seems a reasonable assumption.
Here is the link to the Myrmikan report, dated February 9, 2026:
https://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2026_02_09.pdf
h/t Navroop Singh, February 9.
