Kobeissi Report, Sept. 5
EndGameMacro, Sept. 5, notes by way of explication:
Youth employment is always more volatile than the headline rate, but when it breaks into double digits, history shows it often foreshadows broader labor market deterioration.
The chart makes the point starkly. In the late 1990s, youth unemployment hovered in the mid single digits, only to spike as the dot com bubble collapsed. The same pattern unfolded in the run up to 2008, young workers were among the first to lose their footing, and their unemployment rate accelerated just as the broader economy slid into recession. The pandemic saw an even sharper version of the same cycle, with youth joblessness blowing past 25% before retracing. Now we are back above 10% for the first time since then.
