Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Uranium Miners Over-Contracted and Under-Producing

 U3O8RM, Sept 1, has a great thread on the problems besetting the Uranium Miners. The charts shows that Cameco, going into its production shortful because of problems at its McArthur mine, "was already over-contracted with average annual commitments of 28m pounds of uranium on average from 2025-2029." He thinks that Cameco has contracted 30m lbs in 2025, but only has production of 23.65m lbs, forcing it heavily into the spot market. 

"Bottom line is with inventory drawdowns maxed out, existing large U308 and UF6 loans already oustanding between 2 of the world's largest producers, Cameco and Orano will be forced to be more aggessive buyers into a very thin #uranium spot market. The "McArthur Moment" has arrived and it could get extra spicy if production problems persist into 2026." 

https://x.com/U308RM/status/1962546253146759382

Paulo Macro, Sept 1, has a hilarious comment on Cameco's earnings call of the month before, where he says that they told you "that CCJ--a miner whose purpose is to pull earth out of the ground and sell it--is a net buyer of 9-10mm lbs by year end because well, you know, that's all part of their master plan to unfuck themselves in a squeezing market."